Diego Valle-Jones's Bloghttps://blog.diegovalle.net/2012-05-19T00:00:00+02:00Map of divorce in Mexico2012-05-19T00:00:00+02:00Diego Valle-Jonestag:blog.diegovalle.net,2012-05-19:2012/05/map-of-divorce-in-mexico.html<div class="post-body entry-content" itemprop="articleBody">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="/images/blogger_images/1.bp.blogspot.com_-uLKBHRBVBmA_T7Rn03RuSaI_AAAAAAAAFPA_fOkGL4jIdvg_s1600_cumulative-divorce-map.png" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" height="266" src="/images/blogger_images/1.bp.blogspot.com_-uLKBHRBVBmA_T7Rn03RuSaI_AAAAAAAAFPA_fOkGL4jIdvg_s400_cumulative-divorce-map.png" width="400"/></a></div>
Keeping with this week’s divorce theme, here’s a map of the Mexican states where marriages are most likely to end in divorce. Perhaps not surprisingly, there seems to be an inverse correlation with the <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/03/daily-chart-17">state percentage of the population that is catholic</a> and the proportion of marriages which end in divorce. You can download the code to generate the map from my <a href="https://github.com/diegovalle/Express-Divorce">GitHub account</a>.<br/>
<br/>
<br/>
<div style="clear: both;"></div>
</div>Proportion of marriages ending in divorce2012-05-17T00:00:00+02:00Diego Valle-Jonestag:blog.diegovalle.net,2012-05-17:2012/05/proportion-of-marriages-ending-in.html<div class="post-body entry-content" itemprop="articleBody">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="/images/blogger_images/1.bp.blogspot.com_-pbxHVajmhpE_T7Rbq0pyX9I_AAAAAAAAFOU_-kW2V0w8SCg_s1600_projection-cumulative-divorces-by-length2.png" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" height="300" src="/images/blogger_images/1.bp.blogspot.com_-pbxHVajmhpE_T7Rbq0pyX9I_AAAAAAAAFOU_-kW2V0w8SCg_s400_projection-cumulative-divorces-by-length2.png" width="400"/></a></div>
Over the last two decades families in Mexico have undergone rapid social changes. The proportion of marriages ending in divorce has risen for each cohort since data became available, this is independant of the recently approved express divorce law in the Federal District.<br/>
<a name="more"></a><br/>
Looking at the the period during which marriages are more likely to end in divorce it seems there is a 3 to 7 year itch.<br/>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="/images/blogger_images/3.bp.blogspot.com_-mV1QeAHWxrU_T7RbxWZ6BzI_AAAAAAAAFOc_2Ge7KLUUTS4_s1600_divorces-by-length.png" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" height="240" src="/images/blogger_images/3.bp.blogspot.com_-mV1QeAHWxrU_T7RbxWZ6BzI_AAAAAAAAFOc_2Ge7KLUUTS4_s320_divorces-by-length.png" width="320"/></a></div>
and by state we see that the rise in the proportion of marriages that end in divorce has been nearly universal across the states of Mexico, though, of course, there is some internal migration within Mexico and more recently people have been divorcing in the Federal District because of its more permissive divorce laws, so the numbers aren’t exact.<br/>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="/images/blogger_images/3.bp.blogspot.com_-jZzSa9HPxqw_T7Rb5SrrLcI_AAAAAAAAFOk_wWAosCUilQU_s1600_divorces-by-length-state.png" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" height="213" src="/images/blogger_images/3.bp.blogspot.com_-jZzSa9HPxqw_T7Rb5SrrLcI_AAAAAAAAFOk_wWAosCUilQU_s320_divorces-by-length-state.png" width="320"/></a></div>
Cumulative proportion by state:<br/>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="/images/blogger_images/2.bp.blogspot.com_-SIHZ0tKZV1w_T7RcBJ2ycrI_AAAAAAAAFOs_4Z3A3x9Grdc_s1600_cumulative-divorce-by-length-state.png" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" height="213" src="/images/blogger_images/2.bp.blogspot.com_-SIHZ0tKZV1w_T7RcBJ2ycrI_AAAAAAAAFOs_4Z3A3x9Grdc_s320_cumulative-divorce-by-length-state.png" width="320"/></a></div>
While it will take more than a decade to obtain long term marriage dissolution data for recent cohorts, the rising pattern looks very predictable and I used a multi-level model to predict future marriage dissolutions. The data has been adjusted because divorces registered in 2009 were under-counted by about 5%, and those registered in 2008 by about 1%.<br/>
<br/>
<div style="overflow: auto;">
<div class="geshifilter">
<pre class="r geshifilter-R" style="font-family: monospace;">fit <- <a href="http://inside-r.org/r-doc/nlme/lme"><span style="color: #003399; font-weight: bold;">lme</span></a><span style="color: #009900;">(</span>fixed = percent.divorce ~ marriage.length + <a href="http://inside-r.org/r-doc/base/log"><span style="color: #003399; font-weight: bold;">log</span></a><span style="color: #009900;">(</span>marriage.length<span style="color: #009900;">)</span> + marriage.year + express.divorce<span style="color: #339933;">,</span>
<a href="http://inside-r.org/packages/cran/random">random</a> = ~ -<span style="color: #cc66cc;">1</span> | marriage.year<span style="color: #339933;">,</span>
<a href="http://inside-r.org/r-doc/utils/data"><span style="color: #003399; font-weight: bold;">data</span></a> = <a href="http://inside-r.org/r-doc/base/subset"><span style="color: #003399; font-weight: bold;">subset</span></a><span style="color: #009900;">(</span>marriage.duration<span style="color: #339933;">,</span> marriage.length >= <span style="color: #cc66cc;">2</span><span style="color: #009900;">)</span><span style="color: #009900;">)</span></pre>
</div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="/images/blogger_images/4.bp.blogspot.com_-YAJxfjdQbYo_T7RcH35M_kI_AAAAAAAAFO0_1VRVdaaQW_4_s1600_projection-cumulative-divorces-by-length.png" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" height="240" src="/images/blogger_images/4.bp.blogspot.com_-YAJxfjdQbYo_T7RcH35M_kI_AAAAAAAAFO0_1VRVdaaQW_4_s320_projection-cumulative-divorces-by-length.png" width="320"/></a></div>
<br/>
Cross country comparisons are always problematic, but comparing the percentage of <i>all marriages</i> that end in divorce in Mexico to <i>first marriages</i> that end in divorce in the <span class="caps">US</span> (not an apples to apples comparison!), the divorce rate would be lower in Mexico than in the <span class="caps">US</span> during the 1950s. See Figure 2 of <a href="http://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1007&context=psc_working_papers">Marriage and Divorce: Changes and their Driving Forces</a> by Stevenson and Wolfers.<br/>
<br/>
There are a couple of reasons why my assumptions in making the estimates may be wrong:<br/>
<ul>
<li>Thought I did add a dummy variable denoting if express divorce had been approved, if divorces keep <a href="http://blog.diegovalle.net/2012/05/express-divorce-in-mexico.html">increasing and increasing</a> in the Federal District eventually they’ll make a dent in the country wide statistics. And as I mentioned in the post there is some uncertainty on whether the rise will prove permanent.</li>
<li>As we saw in my <a href="http://blog.diegovalle.net/2012/05/express-divorce-in-mexico.html">last post </a>express divorce has proven particularly popular outside the Federal District, so I wouldn’t be surprised if in the future other states adopted similar laws. </li>
</ul>
And let’s not forget that <a href="http://blog.diegovalle.net/2009/12/unmarried-parenthood-rate-in-mexico.html">births outside of marriage</a> are now a majority of births in Mexico, so looking at marriage
dissolution provides only a partial look at what union dissolution is
like<br/>
<br/>
<br/>
<br/>
<span class="caps">P.S.</span> You can download the code from my <a href="https://github.com/diegovalle/Express-Divorce">GitHub account</a> <br/>
<div style="clear: both;"></div>
</div>Express Divorce in Mexico2012-05-16T00:00:00+02:00Diego Valle-Jonestag:blog.diegovalle.net,2012-05-16:2012/05/express-divorce-in-mexico.html<div class="post-body entry-content" itemprop="articleBody">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="/images/blogger_images/1.bp.blogspot.com_-Oepx1pBbRcY_T6sZKmVMqqI_AAAAAAAAFNM_V5RfjbPRD-Q_s1600_breakpoint2.png" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" height="221" src="/images/blogger_images/1.bp.blogspot.com_-Oepx1pBbRcY_T6sZKmVMqqI_AAAAAAAAFNM_V5RfjbPRD-Q_s400_breakpoint2.png" width="400"/></a></div>
On October 2008 Mexico’s capital, the Federal District, approved a version of no-fault divorce locally known as “express divorce”. With the new law the requesting spouse no longer had to provide a cause to dissolve the marriage and the couple no longer had to live apart before filing for divorce. Furthermore, the process of determining child custody and alimony were now separate from the divorce trial. The Federal District has so far been the only federative entity in Mexico to adopt a less adversarial divorce system.<br/>
<br/>
<a name="more"></a>A quick look at the monthly divorce data in the Federal District shows that there is a strong seasonal component to divorce with a fall in the number filings during July, December and to a lesser extend January. But more importantly, it shows a big increase in divorces for the year after the law went into effect. The number of divorces filed went from 6,897 in 2007 to 7,410 in 2008, and 9,835 in 2009 (because it takes time to enter the divorces in the vital statistics database the number of divorces are under-counted by about 1% in 2008 and 5% in 2009)<br/>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="/images/blogger_images/4.bp.blogspot.com_-t8eQLYVAwUU_T6saWs6pvWI_AAAAAAAAFNU_e1_ETQwgNqk_s1600_seasonggplot.png" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" height="221" src="/images/blogger_images/4.bp.blogspot.com_-t8eQLYVAwUU_T6saWs6pvWI_AAAAAAAAFNU_e1_ETQwgNqk_s400_seasonggplot.png" width="400"/></a></div>
Fitting an <span class="caps">ARIMA</span>(1,0,0)(1,0,0)<sub>12</sub> model to the divorce data with the <a href="http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/strucchange/index.html">strucchange</a> package I find a structural change that coincides with the October implementation of express divorce.<br/>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="/images/blogger_images/1.bp.blogspot.com_-aPn7qK5ASms_T6sZBwz9ABI_AAAAAAAAFNE_f9dhekKvZzA_s1600_breakpoint.png" ><img border="0" height="221" src="/images/blogger_images/1.bp.blogspot.com_-aPn7qK5ASms_T6sZBwz9ABI_AAAAAAAAFNE_f9dhekKvZzA_s400_breakpoint.png" width="400"/></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
Looking at the divorces that were filed in the Federal District (<i>Distrito Federal</i>) by the state where the marriage took place reveals there’s a very strange pattern whereby the whole increase in the number of divorces can be accounted by people from outside the Federal District taking advantage of its laws to get a divorce. In fact, among people who got married in the Federal District and filed for divorce in the Federal District there was a decrease in the number of divorces!<br/>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="/images/blogger_images/1.bp.blogspot.com_-f-Pv5u1qz7Q_T5X4Ihw1w4I_AAAAAAAAFKM_w4YYFdyWvm4_s1600_divorce-trends-df-vs-elsewhere.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="266" src="/images/blogger_images/1.bp.blogspot.com_-f-Pv5u1qz7Q_T5X4Ihw1w4I_AAAAAAAAFKM_w4YYFdyWvm4_s400_divorce-trends-df-vs-elsewhere.png" width="400"/></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Notice the y axes of the plot are on different scales</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The Federal District was the only entity where there was a decrease in the number of divorces filed:<br/>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="/images/blogger_images/3.bp.blogspot.com_-E3OrELdhfaE_T5X4QLKA8VI_AAAAAAAAFKU_ld5QcqWFbZI_s1600_ratio-df.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="/images/blogger_images/3.bp.blogspot.com_-E3OrELdhfaE_T5X4QLKA8VI_AAAAAAAAFKU_ld5QcqWFbZI_s400_ratio-df.png" width="400"/></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">There were less divorces in the Federal District in 2009 than in 2008</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br/>
In <i>Did Unilateral Divorce Raise Divorce Rates? A Reconciliation</i><br/>
<i>and New Results</i> Justin Wolfers argues that immediately after the United States adopted no fault divorce there was a big increase in divorces, but the trend reversed after about a decade, that is, the rise in divorces after no fault divorce was adopted was not persistent and the temporary rise may have been due to a backlog of couples who were in bad marriage but had postponed going through a burdensome divorce process.<br/>
<br/>
Since I only have express divorce data for about a year I thought that one way to test if the rise in divorces was on path to becoming permanent would be to look at the trend in length of marriages among those who file for divorce, though of course, <b>it is foolhardy to extrapolate from only one year of data</b> since as more people become aware of the divorce law, they may take it into account in deciding whether and at what age to marry. Or maybe with the introduction of the new law divorce will become more socially acceptable and less stigmatized.<br/>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="/images/blogger_images/2.bp.blogspot.com_-oKWMLIKdnhY_T5X4XKjC4HI_AAAAAAAAFKc__hnqhs4L-jw_s1600_divorce-backlog.png" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" height="250" src="/images/blogger_images/2.bp.blogspot.com_-oKWMLIKdnhY_T5X4XKjC4HI_AAAAAAAAFKc__hnqhs4L-jw_s400_divorce-backlog.png" width="400"/></a></div>
<br/>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
Here’s a table with the total number of divorces (instead of the percentage change) in the Federal District, by length of marriage:<br/>
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr> <th>Year</th> <th>0-1<br/>
years </th> <th>2-4<br/>
years </th> <th>5-9<br/>
years </th> <th>10-14<br/>
years </th> <th>15<br/>
or<br/>
more years </th> </tr>
<tr> <td align="right">2007 </td> <td align="right">278 </td> <td align="right">1,382 </td> <td align="right">1,844 </td> <td align="right">1,105 </td> <td align="right">2,258 </td> </tr>
<tr> <td align="right">2008 </td> <td align="right">339 </td> <td align="right">1,453 </td> <td align="right">1,852 </td> <td align="right">1,205 </td> <td align="right">2,561 </td> </tr>
<tr> <td align="right">2009 </td> <td align="right">342 </td> <td align="right">1,716 </td> <td align="right">2,358 </td> <td align="right">1,659 </td> <td align="right">3,760 </td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
The biggest
increase in people filing for divorce was among those who had been
married the longest, but remember the previous chart? If we divide the
data into those who married in the Federal District and outside it, we
come to a completely different conclusion.<br/>
<br/>
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS',sans-serif; font-size: large;">Outside the Federal District</span><br/>
<br/>
Among those who married outside the Federal District we see an increase in divorces among recent marriages<br/>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="/images/blogger_images/3.bp.blogspot.com_-cM5LvszMnjU_T5X4fMHTXrI_AAAAAAAAFKk_6dVnX0r9D2A_s1600_divorce-backlog-outside-df.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="250" src="/images/blogger_images/3.bp.blogspot.com_-cM5LvszMnjU_T5X4fMHTXrI_AAAAAAAAFKk_6dVnX0r9D2A_s400_divorce-backlog-outside-df.png" width="400"/></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The biggest percentage change <b>outside</b> the <span class="caps">DF</span> occurred among those couples who still remember their honeymoons</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Here’s a table with the total number of divorces (instead of the percentage change) in the Federal District of marriages that took place <b>outside</b> the Federal District, by length of marriage:<br/>
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr> <th><br/></th> <th>0-1<br/>
years </th> <th>2-4<br/>
years </th> <th>5-9<br/>
years </th> <th>10-14<br/>
years </th> <th>15<br/>
or<br/>
more years </th> </tr>
<tr> <td align="right">2007 </td> <td align="right">17 </td> <td align="right">85 </td> <td align="right">194 </td> <td align="right">134 </td> <td align="right">259 </td> </tr>
<tr> <td align="right">2008 </td> <td align="right">23 </td> <td align="right">91 </td> <td align="right">205 </td> <td align="right">144 </td> <td align="right">320 </td> </tr>
<tr> <td align="right">2009 </td> <td align="right">208 </td> <td align="right">877 </td> <td align="right">948 </td> <td align="right">486 </td> <td align="right">1,224 </td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS',sans-serif; font-size: large;">Federal District </span><br/>
<br/>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
And among those who got married in the Federal District we see the opposite pattern: there was an increase in divorces among people who had been married a long time and for people who hadn’t been married long there was a big decrease, even though a law making it easy to get a divorce had just been passed.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="/images/blogger_images/4.bp.blogspot.com_-HkJ0Edikm0E_T5X4jtfZNgI_AAAAAAAAFKs_pkbKwKLoQlU_s1600_divorce-backlog-in-df.png" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" height="200" src="/images/blogger_images/4.bp.blogspot.com_-HkJ0Edikm0E_T5X4jtfZNgI_AAAAAAAAFKs_pkbKwKLoQlU_s320_divorce-backlog-in-df.png" width="320"/></a></div>
<br/>
Here’s a table with the total number of divorces (instead of the percentage change) in the Federal District of marriages that
took place <b>in</b> the Federal Distric, by length of marriage:<br/>
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr> <th><br/></th> <th>0-1<br/>
years </th> <th>2-4<br/>
years </th> <th>5-9<br/>
years </th> <th>10-14<br/>
years </th> <th>15<br/>
or<br/>
more years </th> </tr>
<tr> <td align="right">2007 </td> <td align="right">261 </td> <td align="right">1,297 </td> <td align="right">1,650 </td> <td align="right">971 </td> <td align="right">1,999 </td> </tr>
<tr> <td align="right">2008 </td> <td align="right">316 </td> <td align="right">1,362 </td> <td align="right">1,647 </td> <td align="right">1,061 </td> <td align="right">2,241 </td> </tr>
<tr> <td align="right">2009 </td> <td align="right">134 </td> <td align="right">839 </td> <td align="right">1,410 </td> <td align="right">1,173 </td> <td align="right">2,536 </td> </tr>
</tbody></table>
In the vital statistics database most of people who filed for divorce in the Federal District but got married outside of it are coded as having lived in the Federal District at the time they filed for divorced. I’m guessing this is probably just a quirk of the law that makes it easy to use a Federal District address and that there really is a lot of “divorce tourism” going on rather than the unique stress of living among <i>chilangos</i> (the inhabitants of the Federal District) causing men and women from <i>provincia</i> (the region of Mexico outside the Federal District) to get divorced.<br/>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br/>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="/images/blogger_images/3.bp.blogspot.com_-8MHD256dyzg_T6nn9c7X4FI_AAAAAAAAFMk_ekgnwcgYsZE_s1600_divorces-by-length-state-df-qto-hgo-mor.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="/images/blogger_images/3.bp.blogspot.com_-8MHD256dyzg_T6nn9c7X4FI_AAAAAAAAFMk_ekgnwcgYsZE_s400_divorces-by-length-state-df-qto-hgo-mor.png" width="400"/></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The proportion of marriages ending in divorce decreased in the Federal District and increased in Morelos and Hidalgo. I have no idea what sort of witchcraft Querétaro uses to ward off the perverting influence
of that hotbed of depravity and den sin better known as the Federal
District.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br/>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style='font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;'>
<span style="font-size: large;">Why did divorces decrease in the Federal District? </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="/images/blogger_images/2.bp.blogspot.com_-MXaLAm5XgHE_T61PH4uf9OI_AAAAAAAAFNw_HgjI-bmM4yE_s1600_breakpoint-marriage.png" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" height="221" src="/images/blogger_images/2.bp.blogspot.com_-MXaLAm5XgHE_T61PH4uf9OI_AAAAAAAAFNw_HgjI-bmM4yE_s400_breakpoint-marriage.png" width="400"/></a></div>
One clue lies in the fact that marriages fell in the Federal District a few months before the divorce law went into effect. In 2007 there were 41,427 marriages, in 2008 33,968, and in 2009 32,083. There are various reasons these could have happened<br/>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<ol>
<li>An <b>error in the database</b>. But according to this story in <a href="http://www.excelsior.com.mx/index.php?m=nota&seccion=&cat=1&id_nota=713626%20"><i>Excelsior</i></a> (link in Spanish) the authorities double checked the data to make sure there were no errors. </li>
<li>The story also mentions a <b>price increase</b> but discards that theory as not very likely. A quick internet search reveals the fact that a <a href="http://www.tramitesyservicios.df.gob.mx/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=505:registro-de-matrimonio&catid=116:registro-civil&Itemid=496">marriage license costs</a> about $70 <span class="caps">US</span> dollars ($900 pesos). Marriage would have to have quite a large price elasticity to fall that much. </li>
<li>Another hypothesis is that since <b>abortion was legalized</b> in April of
2007 perhaps pregnancies that previously resulted in shotgun marriages
now end in abortions. And it was precisely these marriages that were more likely to end in divorce. When looking at the age specific marriage totals, the younger the bride
the bigger the percentage decrease in marriages compared to previous years. But this theory doesn’t explain the fall in divorces among those marriages more than a few years old.</li>
</ol>
Basically I don’t have an all-encompassing theory of why marriage fell.<br/>
<br/>
<br/>
<span class="caps">P.S.</span> You can download the code from my <a href="https://github.com/diegovalle/Express-Divorce">GitHub account</a><br/>
<br/>
References<br/>
<br/>
Wolfers, Justin, <i>Did Unilateral Divorce Laws Raise Divorce Rates? A Reconciliation and New Results</i> (August 2003). Stanford Law and Economics Olin Working Paper No. 264; Stanford Law School, Public Law Working Paper No. 68. Available at <span class="caps">SSRN</span>: http://ssrn.com/abstract=444620 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.444620
<div style="clear: both;"></div>
</div>