Proportion of marriages ending in divorce

on May 17, 2012
Over the last two decades families in Mexico have undergone rapid social changes. The proportion of marriages ending in divorce has risen for each cohort since data became available, this is independant of the recently approved express divorce law in the Federal District.

Looking at the the period during which marriages are more likely to end in divorce it seems there is a 3 to 7 year itch.
and by state we see that the rise in the proportion of marriages that end in divorce has been nearly universal across the states of Mexico, though, of course, there is some internal migration within Mexico and more recently people have been divorcing in the Federal District because of its more permissive divorce laws, so the numbers aren't exact.
Cumulative proportion by state:
While it will take more than a decade to obtain long term marriage dissolution data for recent cohorts, the rising pattern looks very predictable and I used a multi-level model to predict future marriage dissolutions. The data has been adjusted because divorces registered in 2009 were under-counted by about 5%, and those registered in 2008 by about 1%.

fit <- lme(fixed = percent.divorce ~ marriage.length + log(marriage.length) + marriage.year + express.divorce,
           random = ~ -1 | marriage.year, 
           data = subset(marriage.duration, marriage.length >= 2))

Cross country comparisons are always problematic, but comparing the percentage of all marriages that end in divorce in Mexico to first marriages that end in divorce in the US (not an apples to apples comparison!), the divorce rate would be lower in Mexico than in the US during the 1950s. See Figure 2 of Marriage and Divorce: Changes and their Driving Forces by Stevenson and Wolfers.

There are a couple of reasons why my assumptions in making the estimates may be wrong:
  • Thought I did add a dummy variable denoting if express divorce had been approved, if divorces keep increasing and increasing in the Federal District eventually they'll make a dent in the country wide statistics. And as I mentioned in the post there is some uncertainty on whether the rise will prove permanent.
  • As we saw in my last post express divorce has proven particularly popular outside the Federal District, so I wouldn't be surprised if in the future other states adopted similar laws.
And let's not forget that births outside of marriage are now a majority of births in Mexico, so looking at marriage dissolution provides only a partial look at what union dissolution is like

P.S. You can download the code from my GitHub account

Don't miss a thing: Follow me @diegovalle on Twitter, grab the RSS feed or subscribe by email


Helen powel said...

My name is Helen,I saw different comments of people on this blogg, that's why I want to use this great opportunity to Testify how the Great prophet saved my marriage, I'm from California.I want to use this opportunity to thank the great Prophet Ijeja the Great who really made my lifea pleasurable one today. This great man IJEJA brought my husband back to me after 6years of breakup in our marriage, and i already had 3 lovely kids for my husband, before he left me for another lady, because she charmed him In 2007 some years ago i and my husband has been into one quarrel and some misunderstandings, life was so miserable for me, until he finally left me for the other lady. For 2years i felt my life was over and my kids thought they would never see their father again. i tried to be strong just for the kids but i could not control the pains that torments my heart, my heart was filled with sorrows and pains because i was really in love with my husband. Every day and night i think of him and always wish he would come back to me, until one day i met an old friend
of mine that was also in a situation
like this but hers was her ex- boyfriend who she had an unwanted pregnancy for and he refused to take responsibility and dumped her. she told me that MINE was a small case and that i shouldn't worry
about it at all so i asked her what
was the solutions to my problems and she gave me this great mans phone number and
his contact email address i was doubting if this man was the solution, so contacted this great man and he told me what to do and I did them all, he told me to wait for just two day and that my husband will come crawling on his kneels just for forgiveness so i faithfully did what this great man asked me to do and for sure immediately after two days i heard a knock on the door, in a great surprise i saw him begging on his kneels and i was speechless, when he saw me, all he did was crying and asking me for forgiveness, from that day, all the pains and sorrows in my heart flew away,since then i and my husband and our lovely kids are happy family thats why I want to say a big thank you to Ijeja the Great Prophet This great man made me to understand that there's no problem on earth that has no solution so please if you know that you have this same problem
(1) He will help you to Have promotion in
anything you do.
(2 )Earn a good money.
(3)Success in business.
(4)spiritual problems.
(5) win court case.
(6)Looking for a good man.
(7)looking for job.
(8)want to be in control of you marriage.
(9)want to be attracted to people.
(10)you have be scammed and u need your money
(11)you have be working without promotion.
(12)If you have any symptoms of sickness that is un cured
(13)You have pregnancy problems with babies:
(14)If you have problem about your womb,you
want have or bear children.
(If you have brain tumour, or mental problem, this is the time for you to contact him). You can Email
or any problem that is similar, i will advise
you to come straight to this great man.
you can email

Post a Comment

Thank you for your interesting and insightful comments. I truly look forward to reading them.