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Strengths and weaknesses of crime data in Mexico

With so much data pertaining to the drug war released recently it’s hard to keep track of it all. And as with all things in life there are different pros and cons associated with each of the datasets: The homicide data from the police (SNSP), the homicide data from the vital statistics (INEGI), and the different estimates of drug war related deaths from Reforma, Milenio, and the database of homicides presumed to have been committed by organized crime.


The most violent metropolitan areas in Mexico

I’m surprised at how much violence has increased in Mexicali and how at odds it is with the drug-related homicide data.

Year Drug-Related Homicides Total Homicides
2007 21 64
2008 39 106
2009 69 213

Maps of drug-related homicides

Just by looking at the map it is obvious that the drug war is a dispute over the drug traficking routes to the United States; Mexico’sdrug-producing regions of the  “Golden Triangle” and “Tierra Caliente,” where lots of meth labs are located and opium poppies and mariguana is grown; the ports where cocaine and the precursors for producing methanpetimes arrive; and the routes to the airports in Cuernavaca and Mexico City (though maybe in Mexico City the local drug market is big enough to be important).


When percentages mislead


Homicides in Mexico 2006-2009

Just today the Mexican government released to the public the mortality database for 2009, and as you can see from the chart Mexico has suffered from a steep rise in homicides from 2008 onward and very likely reached the highest violence rate in recent history last year. Since the Mexican government also recently made available a database of homicides presumably linked with the drug war we can divide homicides into those related to the drug war an those that are not:


Recent developments in the drug war (October 2010)

The Mexican government recently released data on all crime statistics from January 1997 to October 2010, as reported by the various police forces operating in Mexico. This information provides an unprecedented look at what has happened since the drug war began and allows for a frank assessment of the deterioration of security in Mexico.


Femicides in Mexico 2006-2008

Since the Mexican Human Rights Commission is working on a report of femicides in Mexico, but were only able to access data from the police forces of 18 states, I reran the program I used to analyze the homicides in Ciudad Juárez with data for all femicides.

The only problem is that since I’m using the death certificate database from the vital statistics system, and it takes time to gather all death certificates, I only have data up to the last day of December 2008 (the 2009 vital statistics are supposed to come out during late November/ early December)


Mapping drug war related homicides in 2010

There have been some very good visualizations of the Wikileaks data so I decided to create one of the drug war in Mexico


The dead of Juarez

Ciudad Juárez became the most violent city in Mexico as a consequence of the vicious war between the Juárez Cartel and the Sinaloa Cartel. So far more than 6,500 people have been murdered in this city since the war started. With the Juárez Cartel significantly weakened, 2010 is set to be the most violent year yet…

Here are some statistics of the dead of Juárez:


The 2009 homicide data for Chihuahua has been updated

As I described in this post, the reported number of homicides[1] in Chihuahua during 2009 turned out to be incomplete. Guess what? The SNSP just released [xls file] an updated version of the homicide data, and Chihuahua went from having 2,523 homicides to 3,156. My estimate was ...

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